Are UK house prices sustainable? : Thu Dec 08, 2011 2:14 pm  

Our local 'paper pointed out that average house prices in St Albans are a little over £430,000 and that if someone gets a mortgage with a 25% deposit (which will be nearly £110,000) they need a salary of £90,000 pa to get a mortgage.

I have been predicting a major fall in prices for sometime but government / BoE policy is propping up the prices. Can it continue though as austerity starts to bite?

Re: Are UK house prices sustainable? : Thu Dec 08, 2011 3:55 pm  

Why have you used St Albans as your example and maybe not Salford, Hull, Doncaster etc

Equally you could have used the average house price but then that wouldnt have helped your thread.

Re: Are UK house prices sustainable? : Thu Dec 08, 2011 4:04 pm  

The massive growth in house prices between 1996 to 2006 was well above long term trend and there was obviously scope to fall from then. I think house prices have stabilised now though. I expect that that big growth in house prices will not be repeated any time in the next few decades as wage growth is likely to be low for some time and lenders are unlikely to go crazy making the loans they did in the late 1990s and early 2000s so that will depress demand.

Nationwide's index of house prices suggests that they have now returned more or less to trend from 1975 to present. It would have been healthier for the economy if growth had followed that smooth red line.



That graph is in real house prices by the way, ie adjusted for inflation to todays price, when it says the average house cost £65k in 1977, the actual average price then was around £13k, but that would be £65k in todays money.

Re: Are UK house prices sustainable? : Thu Dec 08, 2011 4:07 pm  

Dally wrote:

Our local 'paper pointed out that average house prices in St Albans are a little over £430,000 and that if someone gets a mortgage with a 25% deposit (which will be nearly £110,000) they need a salary of £90,000 pa to get a mortgage.

I have been predicting a major fall in prices for sometime but government / BoE policy is propping up the prices. Can it continue though as austerity starts to bite?

Well thats thousands of Public Sector workers who can afford to buy in St Albans then according to some on here.

Re: Are UK house prices sustainable? : Thu Dec 08, 2011 4:09 pm  

Hull White Star wrote:

Well thats thousands of Public Sector workers who can afford to buy in St Albans then according to some on here.

Re: Are UK house prices sustainable? : Thu Dec 08, 2011 4:10 pm  

Had the same conversation last night with my 24 year old, I had to point out that while my first flat only cost £9400, that £9400 was almost as unobtainable to me then as £180,000 is to her now.

I also pointed out that the flat in question was a two roomed slum, not two bedrooms, just two rooms, in a not-so glamorous pit village location and that if she lowered her sights to the equivalent these days then she could find the equivalent priced properties.

I think that not only have prices increased (but not out of proportion) but so have peoples expectations as to what they should get for their money.

Re: Are UK house prices sustainable? : Thu Dec 08, 2011 4:11 pm  

Dally wrote:

I have been predicting the sky's going to fall on our heads for sometime but

True

Re: Are UK house prices sustainable? : Thu Dec 08, 2011 5:28 pm  

east stander wrote:

Why have you used St Albans as your example and maybe not Salford, Hull, Doncaster etc

Equally you could have used the average house price but then that wouldnt have helped your thread.

As I said, I was reading the local newpaper!

Are average earnings in the areas you cite high enough to make houses readily affordable there?

Re: Are UK house prices sustainable? : Thu Dec 08, 2011 5:30 pm  

Hull White Star wrote:

Well thats thousands of Public Sector workers who can afford to buy in St Albans then according to some on here.

That's true - the area is full of them. Especially at lunchtime - when the young retirees live it up with expensive pub lunches on their hefty pensions.

Last night Mrs D was out with a friend who recently packed up working with the local authority. She was the lowest paid member of dept but they can't cope without her - because the more senior people are so hopeless. They have asked her to go back on triple the salary - not bad in times of 25% cuts, hey? It's bloo** ludicrous how the petty beaurocrats can always find money to cover their inept backsides but not for the services to help the people they are supposed to.

Re: Are UK house prices sustainable? : Thu Dec 08, 2011 5:39 pm  

Dally wrote:

That's true - the area is full of them. Especially at lunchtime - when the young retirees live it up with expensive pub lunches on their hefty pensions.

Last night Mrs D was out with a friend who recently packed up working with the local authority. She was the lowest paid member of dept but they can't cope without her - because the more senior people are so hopeless. They have asked her to go back on triple the salary - not bad in times of 25% cuts, hey? It's bloo** ludicrous how the petty beaurocrats can always find money to cover their inept backsides but not for the services to help the people they are supposed to.

As a consultant by any chance?? If it was for the same role the salary is scaled and cannot suddenly be tripled.