[Pumpetypump]

Re: Wizened old socialists : Fri Jun 18, 2021 12:20 pm  

Durham Giant wrote:

Whilst I have always advocated electoral pacts between progressives to keep out the Tories and stop the move to the right we see in Britain today . Nick cleggs pact with the devil and agreeing to student loans and years of austerity undermined most arguments I could put forward.

I sympathise with that view. I voted LD all my adult life then abandoned them in disgust for going into Coalition. I could have just about coped with a confidence and supply sort of arrangement, but not formally getting into bed with them. When the referendum came along and I was politically homeless, I had to ask myself how long am I supposed to punish the party that best fits my personal politics, and I returned to the fold. You don't have to forgive Clegg or the party machine to know pragmatically pacts have to be made with the LDs.

Re: Wizened old socialists : Fri Jun 18, 2021 12:37 pm  

I would hope that all parties now know that any pact with the tories will only benefit them and when they don’t need the LD or DUP they become an handy source to blame for all the problems. They know that supporters like you will be so disgusted in the pact that you will hold your party responsible and withhold your vote. The Cons will then use this apathy to boost their seats in any LD/Con marginal.

Re: Wizened old socialists : Fri Jun 18, 2021 4:38 pm  

Pumpetypump wrote:

I sympathise with that view. I voted LD all my adult life then abandoned them in disgust for going into Coalition. I could have just about coped with a confidence and supply sort of arrangement, but not formally getting into bed with them. When the referendum came along and I was politically homeless, I had to ask myself how long am I supposed to punish the party that best fits my personal politics, and I returned to the fold. You don't have to forgive Clegg or the party machine to know pragmatically pacts have to be made with the LDs.

You're right.
Coalitions are part of the UK Democracy, although, nobody ever votes for them.
The Lib dems needed to get something through during their time in cahoots with the Tories, that they could claim was their own policy. Their policy on Tuition Fees would have been something that they could have claimed was "theirs" but, instead, they appeared to roll over and had their collective tummies tickled and lost all credibility because of it.
Mind you, Clegg will be earning substantially more now, than he was a Deputy Prime Minister..
Equally, The DUP missed their chance to come away with something more tangible from their time as "king maker" and they need their backsides kicking for not getting something better for their own supporters when they had the chance.

Re: Wizened old socialists : Thu Jun 24, 2021 10:36 am  

The Ghost of '99 wrote:

Quite, enjoyed watching that one come in, the noises from inside the Lib Dems had been positive but I have to admit I didn't really believe it.

Obviously it's only a by election but it should be a strong reminder to the Tories that going all in on culture war stuff and trashing the economy through Brexit is not going to go down well in very Blue, prosperous areas of the country which often voted Remain.

Whether many of these seats are too Blue to be at serious risk in a General Election with divided opposition we'll see but we've already seen the Tories lose ground in some better-off, better-educated areas as well as some suburban seats. The demographic time bomb facing the Tories long term is also quite horrendous.

Not really - its no shock that as people get older and they experience more of life their voting pattern moves more to the right as they see the difference between reality and theory - as we are all living longer and having less children I would suggest its the left that needs to be concerned.

Re: Wizened old socialists : Thu Jun 24, 2021 1:14 pm  

Zoo Zoo Boom wrote: The Ghost of '99 wrote: The demographic time bomb facing the Tories long term is also quite horrendous. Not really - its no shock that as people get older and they experience more of life their voting pattern moves more to the right as they see the difference between reality and theory - as we are all living longer and having less children I would suggest its the left that needs to be concerned. This is something of an urban myth I think. There may be a bit of truth in it but the research I've seen is that generations generally tend to stick with the political leanings they pick up as they come into adulthood. This is study is from the US but shows a more complex pattern - https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2 ... -behavior/ A generational challenge for the Dems around the turn of the century was the dying-off of the died-in-the-wool old FDR Democrats who had voted solidly for the Democratic party since coming of age whilst the younger generation wasn't quite old enough to be a force. In the UK things are of course different but the trends are acute - the 1979 and 2019 elections aren't massively different in overall % of the votes between the parties. However in '79 the 18-24 and 25-34 age brackets actually voted Conservative over Labour whilst in 2019 the same brackets voted Labour over Tory by margins of +43% and +23%. Whilst there may be something as people get older which may dent those figures they are very unlikely to get close to being overturned. Engaging in the culture war and Brexit stuff that the government delights in right now may be good politics in the short and medium term but in the long run it is very likely to have turned younger voters against the Conservatives for life.

Zoo Zoo Boom wrote: The Ghost of '99 wrote: The demographic time bomb facing the Tories long term is also quite horrendous. Not really - its no shock that as people get older and they experience more of life their voting pattern moves more to the right as they see the difference between reality and theory - as we are all living longer and having less children I would suggest its the left that needs to be concerned. This is something of an urban myth I think. There may be a bit of truth in it but the research I've seen is that generations generally tend to stick with the political leanings they pick up as they come into adulthood. This is study is from the US but shows a more complex pattern - https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2 ... -behavior/ A generational challenge for the Dems around the turn of the century was the dying-off of the died-in-the-wool old FDR Democrats who had voted solidly for the Democratic party since coming of age whilst the younger generation wasn't quite old enough to be a force. In the UK things are of course different but the trends are acute - the 1979 and 2019 elections aren't massively different in overall % of the votes between the parties. However in '79 the 18-24 and 25-34 age brackets actually voted Conservative over Labour whilst in 2019 the same brackets voted Labour over Tory by margins of +43% and +23%. Whilst there may be something as people get older which may dent those figures they are very unlikely to get close to being overturned. Engaging in the culture war and Brexit stuff that the government delights in right now may be good politics in the short and medium term but in the long run it is very likely to have turned younger voters against the Conservatives for life.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Wizened old socialists : Thu Jun 24, 2021 7:31 pm  

Zoo Zoo Boom wrote:

Not really - its no shock that as people get older and they experience more of life their voting pattern moves more to the right as they see the difference between reality and theory - as we are all living longer and having less children I would suggest its the left that needs to be concerned.

I do take your point.

However, I do think the reality of modern Western capitalism doesn’t match the ideals of capitalist theoreticians.

Also, how permanent is a the Johnsonian Conservative revolution? My guess/hope is it will pass, but I imagine a lot of traditional Conservative voters and potential future ones would be lost to them if it lasts. After all, could hardly be described as a mature and reasoned approach to politics or governing.

Re: Wizened old socialists : Fri Jun 25, 2021 11:44 am  

Mild Rover wrote:

I do take your point.

However, I do think the reality of modern Western capitalism doesn’t match the ideals of capitalist theoreticians.

Also, how permanent is a the Johnsonian Conservative revolution? My guess/hope is it will pass, but I imagine a lot of traditional Conservative voters and potential future ones would be lost to them if it lasts. After all, could hardly be described as a mature and reasoned approach to politics or governing.

I agree with the last sentence - if they delay the 19th July because of the Delhi-Belly variant we he is responsible for letting in, whilst allowing Fifa people in and the G7 I think it could have long consequences for Johnson and he knows it.

Re: Wizened old socialists : Fri Jun 25, 2021 11:47 am  

The Ghost of '99 wrote: This is something of an urban myth I think. There may be a bit of truth in it but the research I've seen is that generations generally tend to stick with the political leanings they pick up as they come into adulthood. This is study is from the US but shows a more complex pattern - https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2 ... -behavior/ A generational challenge for the Dems around the turn of the century was the dying-off of the died-in-the-wool old FDR Democrats who had voted solidly for the Democratic party since coming of age whilst the younger generation wasn't quite old enough to be a force. In the UK things are of course different but the trends are acute - the 1979 and 2019 elections aren't massively different in overall % of the votes between the parties. However in '79 the 18-24 and 25-34 age brackets actually voted Conservative over Labour whilst in 2019 the same brackets voted Labour over Tory by margins of +43% and +23%. Whilst there may be something as people get older which may dent those figures they are very unlikely to get close to being overturned. Engaging in the culture war and Brexit stuff that the government delights in right now may be good politics in the short and medium term but in the long run it is very likely to have turned younger voters against the Conservatives for life. What changes most people is when they have a family - and when that happens altruism fades until they have left the nest. Your numbers back up my theory as they have got older their love of Labour diminishes.

The Ghost of '99 wrote: This is something of an urban myth I think. There may be a bit of truth in it but the research I've seen is that generations generally tend to stick with the political leanings they pick up as they come into adulthood. This is study is from the US but shows a more complex pattern - https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2 ... -behavior/ A generational challenge for the Dems around the turn of the century was the dying-off of the died-in-the-wool old FDR Democrats who had voted solidly for the Democratic party since coming of age whilst the younger generation wasn't quite old enough to be a force. In the UK things are of course different but the trends are acute - the 1979 and 2019 elections aren't massively different in overall % of the votes between the parties. However in '79 the 18-24 and 25-34 age brackets actually voted Conservative over Labour whilst in 2019 the same brackets voted Labour over Tory by margins of +43% and +23%. Whilst there may be something as people get older which may dent those figures they are very unlikely to get close to being overturned. Engaging in the culture war and Brexit stuff that the government delights in right now may be good politics in the short and medium term but in the long run it is very likely to have turned younger voters against the Conservatives for life. What changes most people is when they have a family - and when that happens altruism fades until they have left the nest. Your numbers back up my theory as they have got older their love of Labour diminishes.

Re: Wizened old socialists : Fri Jun 25, 2021 12:23 pm  

Zoo Zoo Boom wrote:

What changes most people is when they have a family - and when that happens altruism fades until they have left the nest. Your numbers back up my theory as they have got older their love of Labour diminishes.

I think this theory works best if you sell of social housing dirt cheap, to help get the oldies on board, not that the Tories would do such a thing and leave a huge hole in social housing stock.

Re: Wizened old socialists : Fri Jun 25, 2021 12:43 pm  

Zoo Zoo Boom wrote:

What changes most people is when they have a family - and when that happens altruism fades until they have left the nest. Your numbers back up my theory as they have got older their love of Labour diminishes.

Not at all. The figures suggest that the largest chunk of people who were young in the late 70s voted Tory through the 80s, and still vote that way now they are old. The post war generation who were fans of Atlee and maybe grew up in the depression on the other hand were permanently more left wing.

Past performance isn't a reliable guide to the future but it is very hard to imagine the Conservative party as it stands making massive inroads with younger voters as they age. That will particularly be the case if they continue to present themselves as a British version of the American Republican party.