Re: Another player : Fri Nov 25, 2022 5:04 pm  

The bookies won't be pricing up our league anytime soon so I thought I'd have a stab at it. If you fancy calculating prices yourself, firstly give each of the 11 teams a percentage chance of winning the league. The total win percentage chances for the 11 clubs must come to 100. To then calculate the odds for each team: take 100 and divide it by the win percentage chance. This gives the decimal odds. For example, if you think the Dons have a 40% chance of winning the league, their decimal odds would be 100 divided by 40 = 2.50. 2.50 in decimals is the same as 6/4 in fractions. I found it quite tough to attach win percentages to each team but the thing that struck me was that it could well be quite an open league this season. The image below shows my calculations. I've got the Dons at 5/1 to win the league and 2/1 to get promoted. The bookmakers' prices will probably be shorter than those I've listed as they'll build a profit margin into their book. My book assumes no profit margin for backer or layer.

The bookies won't be pricing up our league anytime soon so I thought I'd have a stab at it. If you fancy calculating prices yourself, firstly give each of the 11 teams a percentage chance of winning the league. The total win percentage chances for the 11 clubs must come to 100. To then calculate the odds for each team: take 100 and divide it by the win percentage chance. This gives the decimal odds. For example, if you think the Dons have a 40% chance of winning the league, their decimal odds would be 100 divided by 40 = 2.50. 2.50 in decimals is the same as 6/4 in fractions. I found it quite tough to attach win percentages to each team but the thing that struck me was that it could well be quite an open league this season. The image below shows my calculations. I've got the Dons at 5/1 to win the league and 2/1 to get promoted. The bookmakers' prices will probably be shorter than those I've listed as they'll build a profit margin into their book. My book assumes no profit margin for backer or layer.

Re: Another player : Fri Nov 25, 2022 6:36 pm  

Bookies aside...we have 3 pundits placing us third ....
That really isn't good enough....

[Wanderer]

Re: Another player : Fri Nov 25, 2022 7:12 pm  

Double Movement wrote:

The bookmakers' prices will probably be shorter than those I've listed as they'll build a profit margin into their book.

Somewhere in the region of 20% and this will mainly be factored into the first few in the betting.

Re: Another player : Sun Nov 27, 2022 9:19 am  

Keith Lard's Dog wrote:

The bookies always seem to underestimate our chances.
Hunslet , Workington and Dewsbury look strong but after the club made their intentions clear at yesterday's launch , I'm confidant of a successful season.

I intend on marrying Britney spears and have been for a while but not getting far with that currently! We have heard this confidence malarkey ever since the infamous 5yr plan was introduced only to be let down year in year out, what we have at our club is very good salesmen and motivational speakers that convince and get me hooked every season but it's getting to a stage where i don't want to open up just to get conned again, I know the fleecebookers who read this will have the pitchforks ready but seriously we are going into another season in my opinion in a tougher league but with a slightly weaker team so how can we be confident?

Re: Another player : Sun Nov 27, 2022 2:32 pm  

Kick and chase wrote:

I intend on marrying Britney spears and have been for a while but not getting far with that currently! We have heard this confidence malarkey ever since the infamous 5yr plan was introduced only to be let down year in year out, what we have at our club is very good salesmen and motivational speakers that convince and get me hooked every season but it's getting to a stage where i don't want to open up just to get conned again, I know the fleecebookers who read this will have the pitchforks ready but seriously we are going into another season in my opinion in a tougher league but with a slightly weaker team so how can we be confident?

The pre-season games we've got lined up are much more sensible than previously. With most of the squad being the same as last year, I don't expect a slow start this time. They're two positives.

Nevertheless, even with a relatively injury-free end of season last time and a team that had got used to playing with each other, we still weren't good enough to beat Swinton.

It does look as though it could be a tougher league in 2023 and we don't seem to have strengthened enough to be confident we're the best team in the division. However, we should be competitive and stand a reasonable chance of winning promotion.

Jemmo, Wanderer and I have stated where we think we're at. What chance of promotion does everyone else think we've got? Have we got a better or worse chance this time around?

Re: Another player : Sun Nov 27, 2022 4:59 pm  

Given it looks like Watson Boas is having a full off season with us this year and will be fit for the start of the campaign (fingers crossed for the friendlies) I’m going to say we have an improved chance on last year. A settled squad at the start of the season with Watson in it I hope means we won’t misfire early and spend the rest of the season playing catch up.

Re: Another player : Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:11 am  

We will have a fully fit internationally recognized half, who would I'm sure not be out of place in any Super League side returning from a serious injury, this will be like a new signing alone and with the addition of Elliott Hall a proven Championship full back they both have pace to burn, I guarantee they will be racking up the points.

I work with two diehard Batley fans, and they could not believe they had missed out on Hall's signature as he was very highly regarded at Mount Pleasant while on loan from Bradford, scoring some spectacular length of the field tries along the way.

I feel that after retaining most of last year's team they will know the structures the coach wants to play and with a few quality additions we will go one better than last year.

The club are making the right noises but as we all know talk is cheap and now, they have to deliver.

Re: Another player : Mon Nov 28, 2022 10:04 am  

Bradley Knowles, Brad hey and a 35yr old forward who has not played in a long time due to injury concerns is hardly bums off seat stuff, i agree Elliott hall could be very good for us but joining the hype train is dangerous as a quite a few of us have been on it for a while! Unless we add 2 big quality signings i honestly don't see us stronger because Ruan will he a big miss. Also agree Boas is our standout player as for him being able to pick his super league team that's a bold statement

Re: Another player : Mon Nov 28, 2022 10:53 am  

Kick and chase wrote:

Bradley Knowles, Brad hey and a 35yr old forward who has not played in a long time due to injury concerns is hardly bums off seat stuff, i agree Elliott hall could be very good for us but joining the hype train is dangerous as a quite a few of us have been on it for a while! Unless we add 2 big quality signings i honestly don't see us stronger because Ruan will he a big miss. Also agree Boas is our standout player as for him being able to pick his super league team that's a bold statement

Knowles is highly regarded as a tough nonsense Championship forward, Hey and James both have plenty of Championship experience and while at the latter stages of their careers will no doubt add to the group if they stay fit.

Your comment about Ruan makes him sound like a world beater, he never impressed me, and I thought his work rate was poor as were his defensive qualities, ....................... yes, Leeds must have seen something in him to warrant a three-year deal but saying he will be a big miss is questionable.
There is always the possibility we have him back on loan as I can't see him breaking into the Rhinos side any time soon and a spell playing regular football in the Championship or league 1 could be route Leeds follow as they did with Liam Tindall.

I think they have seen potential in the lad and working in a full-time environment will only help see what he is capable of.

Re: Another player : Mon Nov 28, 2022 11:56 am  

The very minute after the hooter at swinton we we're promised definitely no more play offs and that automatic was the only option, a simple yes or no answer does our signings up to now have us in the automatic places?