FORUMS FORUMS






RLFANS.COM
Celebrating
25 years service to
the Rugby League
Community!

   WWW.RLFANS.COM • View topic - Another player
User avatar
RankPostsTeam
International Star3426
JoinedServiceReputation
Aug 06 201113 years198th
OnlineLast PostLast Page
27th Mar 24 22:5019th Mar 24 09:13LINK
Milestone Posts
2500
5000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
In the heart of Doncaster

Re: Another player : Fri Nov 25, 2022 5:04 pm  
The bookies won't be pricing up our league anytime soon so I thought I'd have a stab at it.

If you fancy calculating prices yourself, firstly give each of the 11 teams a percentage chance of winning the league. The total win percentage chances for the 11 clubs must come to 100.

To then calculate the odds for each team: take 100 and divide it by the win percentage chance. This gives the decimal odds.

For example, if you think the Dons have a 40% chance of winning the league, their decimal odds would be 100 divided by 40 = 2.50. 2.50 in decimals is the same as 6/4 in fractions.

I found it quite tough to attach win percentages to each team but the thing that struck me was that it could well be quite an open league this season.

The image below shows my calculations.

L1 WIN ODDS 25.11.22.png


I've got the Dons at 5/1 to win the league and 2/1 to get promoted.

The bookmakers' prices will probably be shorter than those I've listed as they'll build a profit margin into their book. My book assumes no profit margin for backer or layer.
The bookies won't be pricing up our league anytime soon so I thought I'd have a stab at it.

If you fancy calculating prices yourself, firstly give each of the 11 teams a percentage chance of winning the league. The total win percentage chances for the 11 clubs must come to 100.

To then calculate the odds for each team: take 100 and divide it by the win percentage chance. This gives the decimal odds.

For example, if you think the Dons have a 40% chance of winning the league, their decimal odds would be 100 divided by 40 = 2.50. 2.50 in decimals is the same as 6/4 in fractions.

I found it quite tough to attach win percentages to each team but the thing that struck me was that it could well be quite an open league this season.

The image below shows my calculations.

L1 WIN ODDS 25.11.22.png


I've got the Dons at 5/1 to win the league and 2/1 to get promoted.

The bookmakers' prices will probably be shorter than those I've listed as they'll build a profit margin into their book. My book assumes no profit margin for backer or layer.
User avatar
RankPostsTeam
Club Coach18609No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
Feb 18 200618 years281st
OnlineLast PostLast Page
18th Mar 24 11:2311th Feb 24 18:03LINK
Milestone Posts
15000
20000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Somewhere in Bonny Donny (Twinned with Krakatoa in 1883).
Signature
War does not determine who is right - only who is left.

Thank God I'm an atheist.

Re: Another player : Fri Nov 25, 2022 6:36 pm  
Bookies aside...we have 3 pundits placing us third ....
That really isn't good enough....
User avatar
RankPostsTeam
Moderator93011No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
Sep 18 200222 years124th
OnlineLast PostLast Page
27th Mar 24 21:5828th Mar 24 09:36LINK
Milestone Posts
75000
100000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Doncaster
Moderator

Re: Another player : Fri Nov 25, 2022 7:12 pm  
Double Movement wrote:
The bookmakers' prices will probably be shorter than those I've listed as they'll build a profit margin into their book.

Somewhere in the region of 20% and this will mainly be factored into the first few in the betting.
RankPostsTeam
First Team Player181No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
Feb 23 20204 years295th
OnlineLast PostLast Page
27th Mar 24 19:1619th Mar 24 11:17LINK
Milestone Posts
100
200
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530

Re: Another player : Sun Nov 27, 2022 9:19 am  
Keith Lard's Dog wrote:
The bookies always seem to underestimate our chances.
Hunslet , Workington and Dewsbury look strong but after the club made their intentions clear at yesterday's launch , I'm confidant of a successful season.

I intend on marrying Britney spears and have been for a while but not getting far with that currently! We have heard this confidence malarkey ever since the infamous 5yr plan was introduced only to be let down year in year out, what we have at our club is very good salesmen and motivational speakers that convince and get me hooked every season but it's getting to a stage where i don't want to open up just to get conned again, I know the fleecebookers who read this will have the pitchforks ready but seriously we are going into another season in my opinion in a tougher league but with a slightly weaker team so how can we be confident?
User avatar
RankPostsTeam
International Star3426
JoinedServiceReputation
Aug 06 201113 years198th
OnlineLast PostLast Page
27th Mar 24 22:5019th Mar 24 09:13LINK
Milestone Posts
2500
5000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
In the heart of Doncaster

Re: Another player : Sun Nov 27, 2022 2:32 pm  
Kick and chase wrote:
I intend on marrying Britney spears and have been for a while but not getting far with that currently! We have heard this confidence malarkey ever since the infamous 5yr plan was introduced only to be let down year in year out, what we have at our club is very good salesmen and motivational speakers that convince and get me hooked every season but it's getting to a stage where i don't want to open up just to get conned again, I know the fleecebookers who read this will have the pitchforks ready but seriously we are going into another season in my opinion in a tougher league but with a slightly weaker team so how can we be confident?


The pre-season games we've got lined up are much more sensible than previously. With most of the squad being the same as last year, I don't expect a slow start this time. They're two positives.

Nevertheless, even with a relatively injury-free end of season last time and a team that had got used to playing with each other, we still weren't good enough to beat Swinton.

It does look as though it could be a tougher league in 2023 and we don't seem to have strengthened enough to be confident we're the best team in the division. However, we should be competitive and stand a reasonable chance of winning promotion.

Jemmo, Wanderer and I have stated where we think we're at. What chance of promotion does everyone else think we've got? Have we got a better or worse chance this time around?
RankPostsTeam
Club Captain34No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
Dec 20 20176 years305th
OnlineLast PostLast Page
28th May 23 15:4227th Nov 22 16:59LINK
Milestone Posts
0
100
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530

Re: Another player : Sun Nov 27, 2022 4:59 pm  
Given it looks like Watson Boas is having a full off season with us this year and will be fit for the start of the campaign (fingers crossed for the friendlies) I’m going to say we have an improved chance on last year. A settled squad at the start of the season with Watson in it I hope means we won’t misfire early and spend the rest of the season playing catch up.
RankPostsTeam
Club Captain349
JoinedServiceReputation
Sep 11 20177 years286th
OnlineLast PostLast Page
31st Jan 24 06:4729th Jan 24 07:52LINK
Milestone Posts
250
500
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530

Re: Another player : Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:11 am  
We will have a fully fit internationally recognized half, who would I'm sure not be out of place in any Super League side returning from a serious injury, this will be like a new signing alone and with the addition of Elliott Hall a proven Championship full back they both have pace to burn, I guarantee they will be racking up the points.

I work with two diehard Batley fans, and they could not believe they had missed out on Hall's signature as he was very highly regarded at Mount Pleasant while on loan from Bradford, scoring some spectacular length of the field tries along the way.

I feel that after retaining most of last year's team they will know the structures the coach wants to play and with a few quality additions we will go one better than last year.

The club are making the right noises but as we all know talk is cheap and now, they have to deliver.
Last edited by Keith Lard's Dog on Mon Nov 28, 2022 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
RankPostsTeam
First Team Player181No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
Feb 23 20204 years295th
OnlineLast PostLast Page
27th Mar 24 19:1619th Mar 24 11:17LINK
Milestone Posts
100
200
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530

Re: Another player : Mon Nov 28, 2022 10:04 am  
Bradley Knowles, Brad hey and a 35yr old forward who has not played in a long time due to injury concerns is hardly bums off seat stuff, i agree Elliott hall could be very good for us but joining the hype train is dangerous as a quite a few of us have been on it for a while! Unless we add 2 big quality signings i honestly don't see us stronger because Ruan will he a big miss. Also agree Boas is our standout player as for him being able to pick his super league team that's a bold statement
RankPostsTeam
Club Captain349
JoinedServiceReputation
Sep 11 20177 years286th
OnlineLast PostLast Page
31st Jan 24 06:4729th Jan 24 07:52LINK
Milestone Posts
250
500
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530

Re: Another player : Mon Nov 28, 2022 10:53 am  
Kick and chase wrote:
Bradley Knowles, Brad hey and a 35yr old forward who has not played in a long time due to injury concerns is hardly bums off seat stuff, i agree Elliott hall could be very good for us but joining the hype train is dangerous as a quite a few of us have been on it for a while! Unless we add 2 big quality signings i honestly don't see us stronger because Ruan will he a big miss. Also agree Boas is our standout player as for him being able to pick his super league team that's a bold statement

Knowles is highly regarded as a tough nonsense Championship forward, Hey and James both have plenty of Championship experience and while at the latter stages of their careers will no doubt add to the group if they stay fit.

Your comment about Ruan makes him sound like a world beater, he never impressed me, and I thought his work rate was poor as were his defensive qualities, ....................... yes, Leeds must have seen something in him to warrant a three-year deal but saying he will be a big miss is questionable.
There is always the possibility we have him back on loan as I can't see him breaking into the Rhinos side any time soon and a spell playing regular football in the Championship or league 1 could be route Leeds follow as they did with Liam Tindall.

I think they have seen potential in the lad and working in a full-time environment will only help see what he is capable of.
RankPostsTeam
First Team Player181No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
Feb 23 20204 years295th
OnlineLast PostLast Page
27th Mar 24 19:1619th Mar 24 11:17LINK
Milestone Posts
100
200
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530

Re: Another player : Mon Nov 28, 2022 11:56 am  
The very minute after the hooter at swinton we we're promised definitely no more play offs and that automatic was the only option, a simple yes or no answer does our signings up to now have us in the automatic places?
PreviousNext

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Double Movement, Kick and chase and 124 guests

REPLY

Subject: 
Message:
   
Please note using apple style emoji's can result in posting failures.
Use the FULL EDITOR to better format content or upload images, be notified of replies etc...

Return to Doncaster RLFC


RLFANS Recent Posts
FORUM
LAST
POST
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
4m
Transfer Talk / Rumour thread V4
Jack Burton
8703
6m
Fevround 2
BarnsleyGull
85
7m
BORED The Band Name Game
Boss Hog
55961
8m
Game - Song Titles
Boss Hog
34247
58m
The Bulls away
Listenup94
6
Recent
The official Leon Hayes Thread
Snaggletooth
9
Recent
Huddersfield - Home
BigTime
5
Recent
Challenge Cup
Captain Hook
34
Recent
The Good Friday Derby Massacre
Dave K.
115
FORUM
LAST
VIEW
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
52s
Catalan Dragons Ticket Question
Rixy
12
55s
The Wigan Way - New Podcast - Chairman Special
Jukesays
1
1m
Fevround 2
BarnsleyGull
85
1m
Saints a
Itchy Arsena
12
1m
Jake Wardle 5 Year deal
Zig
22
1m
The official Leon Hayes Thread
Snaggletooth
9
2m
Shopping list for 2025
Tarquin Fueg
405
2m
Halifax H
Maccbull_Big
32
2m
Challenge Cup 6th Round
Miserybusine
56
2m
No grade A for 2025 for Trinity
imwakefieldt
19
FORUM
NEW
TOPICS
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
TODAY
The Wigan Way - New Podcast - Chairman Special
Jukesays
1
TODAY
Dons v Swinton Lions 30 June 2024
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Squad for Sheffield
AdamH
1
TODAY
London Away
Fartown58
1
TODAY
The Bulls away
Listenup94
6
TODAY
The official Leon Hayes Thread
Snaggletooth
9
TODAY
Saints a
Itchy Arsena
12
TODAY
Leon Ruan signs on loan
Jemmo
2
TODAY
Wardle
Jo Jumbuck
3
TODAY
Huddersfield - Home
BigTime
5
TODAY
Max Wood on loan to Bradford 2 weeks
rubber ducki
7
TODAY
Jake Wardle 5 Year deal
Zig
22
TODAY
No grade A for 2025 for Trinity
imwakefieldt
19
TODAY
Cup Quarter Final TV Arrangements
RLFANS News
1
TODAY
Rd 6 I Cas A
batleyrhino
20
TODAY
WIRE YED Prediction Competition Catalans Home
Bobby Digita
10
TODAY
Spare Tickets Friday
Azul
3
TODAY
RL Podcast
AgbriggAmble
1
TODAY
Challenge Cup
Captain Hook
34
TODAY
2024 Challenge Cup Quarter Final Draw
RLFANS News
1
NEWS ITEMS
VIEWS
Cup Quarter Final TV Arrangeme..
470
2024 Challenge Cup Quarter Fin..
582
Easy Does It For The Dragons A..
515
Warrington Demolish London For..
637
Leigh Leopards Beat Plucky Fea..
687
Saints Triumph Over Disappoint..
660
Easy Win for the Wolves Over L..
911
Dragons Condemn Castleford To ..
893
Leigh Leopards Secure First Po..
1041
St Helens Tame The Rhinos To W..
1009
Wigan Warriors Come From Behin..
1065
Betfred Championship and Leagu..
1052
2024 Challenge Cup Sixth Round..
3826
Featherstone Win Extra Time Cu..
1176
Dragons Triumph Over Hull FC t..
1057
POSTSONLINEREGISTRATIONSRECORD
19.57M 2,645 ↑3480,00114,103
LOGIN HERE
or REGISTER for more features!.

When you register you get access to the live match scores, live match chat and you can post in the discussions on the forums.
RLFANS Match Centre
 TODAY
National Rugby League 2024-R4
09:00
Sydney
v
Penrith
Mens Super League XXVIII-R6
20:00
Castleford
v
Leeds
 TOMORROW
Championship 2024-R2
19:30
Doncaster
v
Sheffield
 Sun 7th Apr
Championship 2024-R3
15:00
Doncaster
v
Wakefield
ALL SCORES PROVIDED BY RLFANS.COM (SETTINGS)
Matches on TV
Thu 28th Mar
SL
20:00
Castleford-Leeds
Fri 29th Mar
SL
12:30
Hull KR-Hull FC
SL
15:00
St.Helens-Wigan
Sat 30th Mar
SL
15:00
Warrington-Catalans
SL
17:30
Salford-Leigh
Sun 31st Mar
SL
15:00
LondonB-Huddersfield
L1
15:00
Oldham-Rochdale
Thu 4th Apr
SL
20:00
Leigh-Wigan
Fri 5th Apr
SL
20:00
Castleford-Salford
SL
20:00
Hull KR-LondonB
SL
20:00
Leeds-Warrington
Sat 6th Apr
SL
15:00
Hull FC-Huddersfield
SL
17:30
Catalans-St.Helens
Sat 13th Apr
CC2024
17:00
Hull KR-Leigh
Sun 14th Apr
CC2024
16:30
St.Helens-Warrington
Fri 19th Apr
SL
20:00
Leeds-Huddersfield
SL
20:00
St.Helens-Hull FC
SL
20:00
Wigan-Castleford
Sat 20th Apr
SL
15:00
Warrington-Leigh
SL
17:30
Catalans-Hull KR
Sun 24th Mar
CC2024 6 Halifax4-40Catalans
NRL 3 Parramatta28-24Manly
NRL 3 Newcastle14-12Melbourne
L1 1 Cornwall16-40Crusaders
L1 1 Keighley58-16Workington
L1 1 Midlands70-16Newcastle
L1 1 Rochdale24-26Hunslet
WOMCC2024 2 FeatherstoneW38-6Shef W
WOMCC2024 2 BarrowW18-20WiganW
WOMCC2024 2 LonB W6-24Wire W
WOMCC2024 2 HKR Wom0-90LeedsW
WOMCC2024 2 Lei L W6-36Hudds W
Sat 23rd Mar
CC2024 6 Batley14-28Castleford
CC2024 6 Huddersfield50-6Hull FC
CC2024 6 Leigh26-14Featherstone
CC2024 6 Warrington42-0LondonB
NRL 3 Canterbury32-0Gold Coast
NRL 3 St.George24-46NQL Cowboys
NRL 3 Wests36-6Cronulla
WOMCC2024 2 Card Wom58-0Sal W
This is an inplay table and live positions can change.
Mens Betfred Super League XXVIII ROUND : 1
 PLDFADIFFPTS
Warrington 5 156 58 98 8
Wigan 4 144 54 90 8
St.Helens 5 118 40 78 8
Catalans 5 126 54 72 8
Hull KR 5 98 63 35 6
Leeds 5 82 82 0 6
 
Salford 5 95 96 -1 6
Huddersfield 5 94 98 -4 4
Leigh 4 82 54 28 2
Hull FC 5 54 162 -108 2
Castleford 5 56 178 -122 0
LondonB 5 54 220 -166 0
This is an inplay table and live positions can change.
Betfred Championship 2024 ROUND : 1
 PLDFADIFFPTS
Widnes 1 44 8 36 2
Wakefield 1 42 12 30 2
Doncaster 1 36 20 16 2
Halifax 1 24 10 14 2
Featherstone 1 24 20 4 2
Sheffield 1 24 22 2 2
 
Whitehaven 1 18 16 2 2
Toulouse 1 22 24 -2 0
Swinton 1 16 18 -2 0
Batley 1 20 24 -4 0
Dewsbury 1 10 24 -14 0
York 1 20 36 -16 0
Bradford 1 12 42 -30 0
Barrow 1 8 44 -36 0
RLFANS Recent Posts
FORUM
LAST
POST
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
4m
Transfer Talk / Rumour thread V4
Jack Burton
8703
6m
Fevround 2
BarnsleyGull
85
7m
BORED The Band Name Game
Boss Hog
55961
8m
Game - Song Titles
Boss Hog
34247
58m
The Bulls away
Listenup94
6
Recent
The official Leon Hayes Thread
Snaggletooth
9
Recent
Huddersfield - Home
BigTime
5
Recent
Challenge Cup
Captain Hook
34
Recent
The Good Friday Derby Massacre
Dave K.
115
FORUM
LAST
VIEW
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
52s
Catalan Dragons Ticket Question
Rixy
12
55s
The Wigan Way - New Podcast - Chairman Special
Jukesays
1
1m
Fevround 2
BarnsleyGull
85
1m
Saints a
Itchy Arsena
12
1m
Jake Wardle 5 Year deal
Zig
22
1m
The official Leon Hayes Thread
Snaggletooth
9
2m
Shopping list for 2025
Tarquin Fueg
405
2m
Halifax H
Maccbull_Big
32
2m
Challenge Cup 6th Round
Miserybusine
56
2m
No grade A for 2025 for Trinity
imwakefieldt
19
FORUM
NEW
TOPICS
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
TODAY
The Wigan Way - New Podcast - Chairman Special
Jukesays
1
TODAY
Dons v Swinton Lions 30 June 2024
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Squad for Sheffield
AdamH
1
TODAY
London Away
Fartown58
1
TODAY
The Bulls away
Listenup94
6
TODAY
The official Leon Hayes Thread
Snaggletooth
9
TODAY
Saints a
Itchy Arsena
12
TODAY
Leon Ruan signs on loan
Jemmo
2
TODAY
Wardle
Jo Jumbuck
3
TODAY
Huddersfield - Home
BigTime
5
TODAY
Max Wood on loan to Bradford 2 weeks
rubber ducki
7
TODAY
Jake Wardle 5 Year deal
Zig
22
TODAY
No grade A for 2025 for Trinity
imwakefieldt
19
TODAY
Cup Quarter Final TV Arrangements
RLFANS News
1
TODAY
Rd 6 I Cas A
batleyrhino
20
TODAY
WIRE YED Prediction Competition Catalans Home
Bobby Digita
10
TODAY
Spare Tickets Friday
Azul
3
TODAY
RL Podcast
AgbriggAmble
1
TODAY
Challenge Cup
Captain Hook
34
TODAY
2024 Challenge Cup Quarter Final Draw
RLFANS News
1
NEWS ITEMS
VIEWS
Cup Quarter Final TV Arrangeme..
470
2024 Challenge Cup Quarter Fin..
582
Easy Does It For The Dragons A..
515
Warrington Demolish London For..
637
Leigh Leopards Beat Plucky Fea..
687
Saints Triumph Over Disappoint..
660
Easy Win for the Wolves Over L..
911
Dragons Condemn Castleford To ..
893
Leigh Leopards Secure First Po..
1041
St Helens Tame The Rhinos To W..
1009
Wigan Warriors Come From Behin..
1065
Betfred Championship and Leagu..
1052
2024 Challenge Cup Sixth Round..
3826
Featherstone Win Extra Time Cu..
1176
Dragons Triumph Over Hull FC t..
1057


Visit the RLFANS.COM SHOP
for more merchandise!